Economy recovering quicker than expected

19th March 2021

By Will Leyland

In some ways, it’s difficult to look back at both the end of last year and the beginning of this year and imagine that we could have come quite as far as we have done in such a small space of time.

Of course, it’s true that we were all optimistic and were living with the hope that brighter days were on their way, but 6-8 months perhaps seemed like it might be a sensible timetable to expect.

The idea of pubs being open, hairdressers being back in business, the hustle and bustle of high streets returning and children going back to school seemed more distant than ever in the dark nights of winter, and yet here we stand on what feels like the precipice of freedom.

Some 20 million or so vaccines later and almost 50% of the adult UK population having received their first jab, the vaccination programme in the UK has been one of staggering success. Not only has it been incredibly efficient, but its also been able to keep supply flowing and it has helped to offer protection to the maximum amount of vulnerable people which has since been vindicated by the scientific evidence.

It represents perhaps one of the most impressive achievements by the British state since World War 2 in both its scale and ambition, especially in the shadow of a European rollout that has been besieged by problems and poor planning.

So where does that leave us in terms of our economic recovery?

Quick recovery

According to an assessment in The Times by economics editor Philip Aldrick, “Britain’s economy is recovering more quickly than the Bank of England had expected last month, with unemployment on course to peak below its 7.5 per cent forecast and both the chancellor’s budget stimulus and President Biden’s plan providing tailwinds to growth.

The Bank’s assessment came in the minutes to this month’s monetary policy committee meeting, at which the nine members voted unanimously to hold rates at 0.1 per cent, as well as signalling that its near-term forecasts for the economy had improved.”

Despite suffering a fairly pronounced economic shock compared to European neighbours, the early indications are that the UK, along with the US, could experience one of the quickest and most explosive economic recoveries in history.

This is thanks, in part, to absolutely enormous economic stimulus provided by the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve in the US, totalling trillions of dollars’ worth of direct economic relief through stimulus payments and the government furlough scheme.

UK property

With all of that in mind, where will that leave UK property in terms of its outlook for this year?

In simple terms, we’d argue that it’s in an extremely good place. Considering 2020 was comparatively one of the best years for decades in terms of price growth, rental growth, demand and yields, it speaks of the huge demand in the market right now as well as the struggle to meet it with sufficient supply.

Many are now predicting that the UK market could exceed even the 2020 performance this year once lockdown is fully lifted, whilst the National Landlord Index is predicting that up to 60% of surveyed landlords expect to expand their portfolio after lockdown is fully lifted.

With that in mind, UK property is bound to get very competitive, and one could argue that now is the perfect time to invest and beat the competition.

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Economy recovering quicker than expected

19 March 2021

In some ways, it’s difficult to look back at both the end of last year and the beginning of this year and imagine that we could have come quite as far as we have done in such a small space of time.

Of course, it’s true that we were all optimistic and were living with the hope that brighter days were on their way, but 6-8 months perhaps seemed like it might be a sensible timetable to expect.

The idea of pubs being open, hairdressers being back in business, the hustle and bustle of high streets returning and children going back to school seemed more distant than ever in the dark nights of winter, and yet here we stand on what feels like the precipice of freedom.

Some 20 million or so vaccines later and almost 50% of the adult UK population having received their first jab, the vaccination programme in the UK has been one of staggering success. Not only has it been incredibly efficient, but its also been able to keep supply flowing and it has helped to offer protection to the maximum amount of vulnerable people which has since been vindicated by the scientific evidence.

It represents perhaps one of the most impressive achievements by the British state since World War 2 in both its scale and ambition, especially in the shadow of a European rollout that has been besieged by problems and poor planning.

So where does that leave us in terms of our economic recovery?

Quick recovery

According to an assessment in The Times by economics editor Philip Aldrick, “Britain’s economy is recovering more quickly than the Bank of England had expected last month, with unemployment on course to peak below its 7.5 per cent forecast and both the chancellor’s budget stimulus and President Biden’s plan providing tailwinds to growth.

The Bank’s assessment came in the minutes to this month’s monetary policy committee meeting, at which the nine members voted unanimously to hold rates at 0.1 per cent, as well as signalling that its near-term forecasts for the economy had improved.”

Despite suffering a fairly pronounced economic shock compared to European neighbours, the early indications are that the UK, along with the US, could experience one of the quickest and most explosive economic recoveries in history.

This is thanks, in part, to absolutely enormous economic stimulus provided by the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve in the US, totalling trillions of dollars’ worth of direct economic relief through stimulus payments and the government furlough scheme.

UK property

With all of that in mind, where will that leave UK property in terms of its outlook for this year?

In simple terms, we’d argue that it’s in an extremely good place. Considering 2020 was comparatively one of the best years for decades in terms of price growth, rental growth, demand and yields, it speaks of the huge demand in the market right now as well as the struggle to meet it with sufficient supply.

Many are now predicting that the UK market could exceed even the 2020 performance this year once lockdown is fully lifted, whilst the National Landlord Index is predicting that up to 60% of surveyed landlords expect to expand their portfolio after lockdown is fully lifted.

With that in mind, UK property is bound to get very competitive, and one could argue that now is the perfect time to invest and beat the competition.

Will Leyland

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